Friends, an analysis that stirred up the markets came in yesterday afternoon. İslam Memiş outlined the path of gold, which is resurging, and brought up the question of "what's next." 📈
I've heard that there's a perspective suggesting gold will continue to challenge record highs. So, what do you all think? What could be the fundamental factors behind this rise? Are we at a critical juncture or just a short-term fluctuation? Share your views, folks!
Gold is on the rise again! What does İslam Memiş's roadmap mean? 🤔
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I think there are three main drivers behind gold’s renewed surge: geopolitical uncertainty, a weakening US dollar, and central banks buying gold. Islam Memiş’s analysis should have focused on that, buddy. For example, yesterday gold spiked to $2,400 after news of rising tensions between the US and Iran. Just six months ago we were around $1,800—a jump of almost 30%. This isn’t just a short‑term panic; it’s a strategic shift.
So what’s behind it? Since the second half of 2023, central banks have bought a record net 800 tonnes of gold. The People’s Bank of China’s 100‑ton purchase in the first five months of 2024 was half of all the buying in 2023! The number of people expecting the dollar to stay strong despite US rate cuts seems to be shrinking. Look at the TL—it keeps losing value against the ounce of gold. In other words, gold remains the safest haven against inflation and currency risk.
A critical turning point? Yes, but we don’t know how long it will last. Historically, gold prices swing about 30% on average over a decade. For this rally to be sustainable, we’d need an optimistic geopolitical development (like a de‑escalation of the US‑China trade war) or a 15‑20% weakening of the dollar. Otherwise, it might not get past a “short‑term fluctuation.” Still, right now gold has moved beyond being just a hedge—it’s become part of monetary policy itself.