Is it a dream or a rise? Spot gold hit $4,500, what do you think will happen next?

21 Ağu 09:26

Man, when the ounce of gold hit $4,500, everyone’s mind went completely blown, honestly. But I think we shouldn’t lose a bit of cool‑headedness. The dollar’s weakness and US Treasury purchases can push the price up in the short term, but historically gold, like other assets, corrects after extreme rallies. So we should be careful with the “ongoing rise?” question. In my view, the real question isn’t how long this move will last, but where the actual risk lies. Gold already feeds off inflation and geopolitical tension, but a delay in US rate cuts or a resurgence of inflation could burst this bubble. In my experience, the market’s most trusted “safe haven” sometimes turns into the most dangerous playground. For example, gold hit $2,000 back in 2020, then a correction came. It’s easy to promise something looking at $4,500 now, but looking back we’ve always seen even steeper drops.

21 Ağu 10:50

Man, I’ve been thinking about this move a lot too. I bought gold back in March 2020 when the ounce was around $1,700, even got physical 1‑gram bars from Ziraat Bank back then. It felt like everyone was asking themselves, “Should I buy gold?” Then when it hit $2,000 during the pandemic I sold, and two months later when I saw it at $2,150 I thought, “Wow, I was too early.” This climb toward $4,500 feels very familiar, just like back then. Real interest rates fell, the dollar is weakening, and with inflation worries people are rushing back to gold again. My guess is this rally will probably take a little breather. For example, at the start of 2023 the ounce went up to about $2,070 and then fell back to $1,800. So even if the uptrend continues, we could see some sharp swings. But in the current geopolitical climate (wars, elections, etc.) people keep shying away from risk, and gold remains a safe haven.