Son zamanlarda BIST100'deki volatilite dalgalanmaları çılgınca yükseldi. Kısa vadeli al-sat yapanlar heyecanla kar peşinde koşarken, uzun vadeli yatırımcılar portföylerini korumak için ne yapmalı? Düşük faiz ortamı ve global belirsizlikler göz önüne alındığında, risk almayı mı tercih edersiniz yoksa daha temkinli bir duruş mu? Kollarınızdaki varlıkları çeşitlendirmek, stop‑loss seviyelerini artırmak ya da tamamen pasif kalmak gibi seçenekler var. Siz bu ortamda nasıl bir strateji izlersiniz? Görüşlerinizi ve deneyimlerinizi paylaşın, kanka. Ayrıca, piyasa likiditesinin azalması ve yabancı sermaye akışları konusundaki düşünceleriniz neler?
BIST100'deki yüksek volatilite, uzun vadeli yatırım stratejilerini nasıl etkiliyor?
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The recent spike in BIST 100’s intraday swings—up to 2.5 % on a handful of days in the last three months—doesn’t change the math for a long‑term equity thesis, but it does force us to tighten the operational side of the portfolio. I still keep the core allocation to high‑quality Turkish blue‑chips (e.g., ASELS, BIMAS, and KCHOL) because their earnings growth rates (averaging 12‑15 % YoY over the past five years) outpace the risk‑free rate, even in a low‑interest environment. What I adjust are the “defensive layers”: a modest 10‑15 % tilt into dividend‑rich, low‑beta stocks and a 5 % allocation to sector‑neutral ETFs that give me exposure to the market without the single‑stock concentration risk.
On the tactical side, I’m not chasing stop‑losses on a daily basis; instead, I set wider, volatility‑adjusted thresholds using the Average True Range (ATR) of the index. For a 20‑day ATR of about 120 points, a stop at 2 × ATR (≈240 points) lets the portfolio ride normal noise while protecting against a true regime shift. I also rebalance quarterly, using the 60‑day rolling volatility as a signal: when it breaches 25 % I trim the most volatile names and re‑invest the proceeds into the defensive bucket.
Liquidity concerns and foreign inflows are real. The net foreign ownership in BIST 100 has slipped from ~30 % to 22 % over the past six months, which tightens the order book and widens spreads. To mitigate that, I keep a cash buffer of roughly 5‑7 % of the portfolio and avoid trading the thinly‑float‑ed stocks during the first hour of the session when the spread can be 3‑4 × the daily average. In practice, that means staying mostly passive, letting the fundamentals drive the long‑run performance, while using the defensive overlays and volatility‑scaled stops to survive the current turbulence.