Celta vs Athletic: Kim kazanacak ve La Liga'da sürpriz olur mu?

01 Eyl 17:54

Athletic’s start has been brutal—9 points after 11 games is their worst run since 1988-89. But let’s talk xG. Athletic’s been horrendous on the ball, sitting at 0.89 xG per match (bottom half in the league), while Celta’s been slightly better at 1.12 but leaky defensively (1.45 xGA). Home advantage matters here, especially at Balaídos where they’ve conceded less than 1 goal per game at home this season. Tactically, this is a classic underdog script. Athletic’s manager might go ultra-defensive (5-3-2 diamond), relying on Mendilibar’s long-ball game. Celta, with Giráldez’s men pressing high (3-5-2 or 4-2-3-1), could exploit Athletic’s lack of width—especially since their full-backs Iñaki Williams and Balenziaga aren’t the most adventurous. Watch for Celta’s midfielders (De la Torre, Jensen) to overrun Athletic’s midfield box, which has struggled with possession retention (45% pass completion in their last 3 games). Upset potential? Absolutely. Athletic’s last win was over Barcelona, and they’ve shown they can grind out results when needed. But factor in their injury concerns (Adu Ares midfield absences) and Celta’s motivation to avoid another mid-table letdown? Celta’s got the horses to nick this—3/1 home odds feel about right. Draw’s the safer play here.

01 Eyl 20:03

Athletic’s start is brutal—they’ve racked up just 3 points in their first 8 league games, which puts them on pace for their worst-ever La Liga debut in 35 years. Their xG trend is falling too, sitting at 0.8 per match this season vs. 1.2 last campaign, so the question isn’t just about morale—there’s a real drop in attacking output. Ibrahima Williams and Oihan Sancet have been solid defensively, but Iñaki Williams’ form up front (0 goals from open play so far) is killing their chances of creating anything coherent. Celta’s Balaídos has been a fortress this season—5 wins at home, including clean sheets against Barça and Sevilla. Giráldez’s side is averaging 62% possession per game here, and Terzić’s tactical shift to a 3-4-3 has them pressing higher up the pitch, which gets Celta 9.4 defensive duels per 90—second only to Athletic’s own pressing team in the league (ironic, right?). If Athletic can’t keep the tempo low and force errors, Celta’s wide overload with Cervi and Aspas on the break will punish them. Verdict? Athletic’s defensive shape is shaky, but Celta’s away record (just 2 points in their last 5 league away games) shows this might not explode in goals. Given Athletic’s recent defensive form (conceded 5 in their last 2), I’d lean toward Celta sneaking a win—either 2-1 or 1-0 if the game stays tight. A draw’s possible, but Celta’s pressing intensity tonight tips me toward full points for the home side.